Liquidity & Technical

Liquidity and Technical

KSPI trades exclusively in US dollars on NASDAQ since its January 2024 IPO; figures on this page are translated to tenge at the 2026 average rate (1 USD ≈ 489.4 ₸) so that capacity, market value, and price levels remain coherent with the rest of the deck. Unitless indicators — RSI, MACD, returns, volatility, ADV-share counts, portfolio percentages — are unchanged by translation.

1. Portfolio implementation verdict

By the strict institutional rule that a 0.5%-of-issuer position must clear in five trading days at 20% ADV, KSPI does not yet pass: the runway file labels the name "Illiquid / specialist only" because issuer-level blocks require multi-week patient execution. The technical setup is, in contrast, decisively constructive — the 50-day SMA crossed above the 200-day on 18 May 2026 (golden cross), price sits 16% above the 200-day, and the three-month rally is up 29% on expanding momentum.

2. Price snapshot

3. Price + 50/200 SMA — full trading history

Regime read: the chart tells a three-act story. Act I (Jan-Jul 2024) is the IPO surge from 47,000 ₸ to an all-time high of 67,900 ₸ on enthusiasm. Act II (Jul 2024 — Mar 2026) is a 20-month grinding downtrend that took price down 48% to a 33,700 ₸ low. Act III began in early April 2026: price ripped 30% in eight weeks, reclaimed both moving averages, and triggered the golden cross. This is an uptrend — and a young one.

4. Relative strength — data not available

The pipeline did not stage a benchmark series for KSPI (broad-market ETF SPY is referenced in the manifest but the comparison file is empty; no Kazakhstan-listed sector ETF exists, and the peer basket is zero). Without a clean rebased curve we will not fabricate one. Absolute return context: KSPI is +19.7% YTD 2026 and +14.8% over the trailing twelve months, both above typical EM fintech tape but below the +30% three-month sprint — meaning most of the relative-strength signal is concentrated in the recent eight weeks.

5. Momentum — RSI(14) and MACD histogram

Momentum read: RSI sits at 67.6 — extended but not yet overbought (threshold 70). The MACD histogram flipped positive in mid-April and has expanded for six consecutive weeks, with the line at +2.57 and signal at +2.35. Both signals point the same direction: short-term momentum is strong and accelerating, not exhausted. The risk is that a stretched RSI prints a 1-2 week pullback before the next leg, not that the trend reverses.

6. Volume, volatility, and sponsorship

Sponsorship read: the two heaviest volume days in the entire two-year tape (Sep-2024 at 17× and 6.7×) were down days, sized like institutional unloads. Through 2025, the heaviest days continued to print on red candles — distribution. The character changed in March-April 2026: the two most recent 3×-or-greater spikes (2 March and 20 April) were both up days of +10.5% and +8.1%. That is the volume signature of a new buyer base, not a dead-cat bounce.

Realized 30-day volatility is 38.3% — between the p50 reading of 35.2% and the p80 band of 45.2%. Normal regime, mildly elevated. Bands: calm under 28%, normal 28–45%, stressed above 45%. The recent rally has not yet pushed vol into the stressed zone, which is consistent with a controlled buy-side accumulation rather than panic short-covering.

7. Institutional liquidity panel

A. ADV and turnover

B. Fund-capacity matrix

For a fund that defines "position" as % of its own AUM:

A fund with AUM up to ₸477B (~USD 975M) can build a 5% KSPI position over five trading days at 20% participation. At 10% participation (the more conservative limit most institutional trade desks prefer), the same five-day window supports a fund up to ₸238B (~USD 488M).

C. Liquidation runway — issuer-level positions

For a fund that defines "position" as % of issuer market cap:

A half-percent issuer block (≈ ₸43.6B / USD 89M) takes 10 trading days to exit at 20% participation — two trading weeks. A 1% block takes about a month. This is why the runway file calls the name "specialist only" — it is not a liquid block-trade tape.

D. Execution friction

Median daily trading range over the last 60 sessions: 1.43%. That is below the 2% threshold that typically signals elevated impact costs on patient block execution. Zero zero-volume sessions in the last 60 days; full volume coverage. Intraday range is moderate.

Bottom line: the largest issuer-level position that clears within five trading days at 20% ADV is under 0.3% of market cap (~₸23.9B / USD 49M); at 10% ADV it is under 0.15% (~₸12B / USD 24M). Funds measuring in AUM terms, not issuer terms, can take a 5% position up to roughly ₸477B AUM.

8. Technical scorecard and stance

Net technical score: +4 of a possible +6 (one dimension unscored).

Stance — 3 to 6 month horizon: bullish

KSPI just completed a clean trend-reversal: a 20-month downtrend bottomed in March 2026, the 50-day crossed above the 200-day on 18 May, momentum is expanding without yet being overbought, and the last two heavy-volume days were buys. Cross-referencing the fundamental tape: if Quant's read flags re-acceleration in consumer-finance or marketplace economics in FY2025/2026 prints, the technical evidence is consistent with smart money already positioning for it.

Two price levels frame the next move:

• Upside confirmation: 47,820 ₸ (USD 97.71). This is the 52-week high set in August 2025. A weekly close above re-opens a path to the all-time high zone near 67,900 ₸ (USD 138.72).
• Downside invalidation: 39,150 ₸ (USD 80.00). This is the 200-day SMA neighborhood and the breakout pivot. A weekly close below would void the golden cross and put price back inside the downtrend.

Liquidity is the constraint, not the conviction. A fund up to ~USD 975M AUM can build a 5% position over five days; larger funds must build slowly over multiple weeks or accept a smaller weight. The tape says add or build; the runway says do it patiently.